1. Natural Disaster and its IMPACT on Bihar…

Bihar after separation of Jharkhand has become a core Agri based state. In past years Bihar farmers were getting good returns for their crops. They were getting about 1150-1250 per quintal for maize. Due to this in period of 2005-06 and 2013-14, Bihar’s rabi maize production more than doubled from around 10 lakh ton to 23lt.

But since last year, maize prices have crashed along with other commodities-globally.

21st April(Tuesday)-Thunderstorms (Kal Baisakhi or nor-westers) with strong winds at 150-200km per hour have only added to farmers’ woes. In Kosi-Seemanchal belt (Purnia, Katihar and Madhepura) Bihar faced a loss of standing and ready to harvest crops. The crop which is still in ready to harvest mode has decolorized or lost starch value hence will be purchased at much lower price.

25th April(Saturday) Earthquake. This disaster had swallowed more than 5000 human lives and many more injured in Nepal and India. In Bihar death toll went up to 57 in Bihar, while the number of injured increased to 200. Bihar administration, NDRF and Indian Army are working to save and treat injured victims.

Many of our political leaders have visited the affected areas. But the arrangements for the victims are not enough. There is a strong need of more equipments and medical facilities.

2. Bihar after LS polls-2014…

After the LS poll, the time when BJP was all over in the Nation. BJP focused on the North India-the Hindi dominated states and Bihar was the primary target.

This time media was very busy with congratulating Modi ji and BJP on its golden victory. Nitish kumar- An experienced politician resigned from post as Bihar CM and broke the Media attention on Modi.

Later when media again Flashing the Modi visit in Varanasi, Safai Abhiyaan, Nitish announced Jatin Ram Manjhi as the State CM and presented the documents signed by 119 MLA’s of a 239 MLA Vidhan Sabha. Surprising everyone including BJP, who claimed of making a govt. in Bihar.

Breaking the coalition with BJP may be Nitish wrong move but after that he picked the exact way to grab everyone attention.

Ex-CM-Jatin Ram Manjhi was following Nitish Kumar strategy and making strange attention grabbing comments.

Till last year, CM Nitish Kumar was being projected as Bihar’s own development man. But few days ago he is faced huge rebel in his own party.

In the meanwhile when ex-CM Manjhi was strengthening and playing his cards without consensus with Nitish Kumar, the Chanakya of Bihar politics-Nitish Kumar felt the heat and all what was cooking in mind of Manjhi.

Again with a dramatic move Nitish Kumar take the power in his hands and again become Chief Minister Of Bihar.

3. AAP Aam Aadmi Party – Bihar Rising…

AAP-with majority of educated class followers, it is not easy to manipulate Bihar Agri-Voters.

Delhi election results will have a great impact on Bihar CASTE based politics too. BJP leaders in Bihar were very confident for victory in any political battle, But AAP victory in Delhi sent BJP to back foot and introspect.

AAP which contested in LS polls-2014 on 40 seats in Bihar, didn’t reached any milestone at that time, but this time with a pre-established party network and followers it can create trouble to both Alliances.

Now AAP after winning Delhi CM seat- the party has another chance to prove itself in Bihar- Assembly elections 2015.

AAP has shown much interest in Punjab, UP and in south India than in Bihar, but we will see AAP and HAM as third option other than JD(U) alliance and BJP alliance in the time of party ticket distribution. BJP and JDU can satisfy only two candidates which makes a good scope for HAM and AAP.

4. HAM* Leader Ex-CM- Jatin Ram Majhi (Mahadalit) – Targetting on Dalit vote bank-Bihar…

He belongs to the weakest of the 22 Scheduled Castes of the state. Coming from the rat-eating community, aptly called Musahar or Bhuniyan, Manjhi has repeatedly been raising the issue of exploitation of Dalits.

Dalits constitute more than 15.1% of total population of Bihar.

Manjhi knows it very well that in the coming elections JD(U) will put up Nitish Kumar as their CM candidate.

Recently HAM held a huge Garib Swabhimaan rally in Gandhi maidan  patna on 20th April, which again  took the HAM graph upwards and also brought the party in attention.

So in the meantime JR Manjhi is grabbing his Dalit votes while other leaders seems busy in JD(U) , RJD and SP alliance and ticket distribution.

Ex-CM Manjhi in here is gaining his strength. He might saving some cards for later stage to be used against or for BJP led alliance.  In present scenario if HAM contests the Bihar assembly elections 2015 alone then it will be more beneficial for them as joining hands with BJP may led decrement in Muslim and Agri based SC voters who are dissatisfied due to land acquisition bill.

5. Will the JD(U), RJD and SP alliance work in Bihar…

At present JD(U) is the biggest party in Bihar followed by BJP, RJD, HAM, LJP & RLSP. To counter BJP it was the best move that a party leader could have taken. Looking at the loss JDU), RJD,SP & INC faced in the LS polls, this step was significant. Yet another hurdle in the way of this alliance is to maintain the satisfaction among the prominent candidates for a single seat. The distribution of seats will result in one or two dissatisfied candidates, who may cause severe damage to party vote in respective assembly constituencies.

But now rebel MLA’s and HAM are most likely to support BJP in upcoming Bihar Assembly Elections-2015 making it hardest to JDU Alliance.

6. MODI magic seems diminishing in BIHAR…

After loss in Delhi Assembly Election-2014, BJP has to replan its strategy of attracting voters. Delhi was a place of “CHANGE-in system” where people wanted a new face and also many of them seem bored with every where MODI-MODI ads. This downfall of BJP is repeated in recent West Bengal Municipal elections.

Bihar on the other hand is a state of Hardcore Caste Politics where things are unpredictable till declaration of results. We already have seen many ups and downs in past months. BJP made many promises in past which are yet to be delivered.

LS-2014 victory motivated the BJP party workers and followers with high levels of enthusiasm. BJP did a tremendous publicity stunt in LS elections, which is still in minds of Bihar locals too. Most of the MP’s are building their PR stronger as they have given responsibilities of their parliamentary for upcoming assembly elections.

7. BJP, LJP, RLSP Alliance and HAM – Future in Bihar…

Bihar has mostly supported the central leadership. It supported the party in center to rule in here too. This may look favoring BJP but still BJP has to work at very ground level, as other parties have already started their caste focused campaigns in here.

BJP as always boosted the Hindutva sentiments in North Indians. Bihar the place of extreme caste politics has proved its worth for BJP in LS polls 2014.

Ram Vilas Paswan who is politically, socially and economically the strongest of all Dalit sub-castes of Bihar, has good grab in his areas.

Jatin Manjhi-(Mahadalit) in a very short tenure has played in extreme. Every front page of every newspaper had some of his news ##. Now his upcoming HAM party has option to hold BJP hand to fight neck to neck battle with JD(U) Alliance or contest on his own.


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